Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 6:39:53 GMT
The World Bank expects East Asia and the Pacific economies to grow more than previously estimated, thanks to a strong rebound in activity in China, noting that the region has not been affected by global banking stress.
The organization projects that the region will grow 5.1% in 2023, compared to the 4.6% forecast in October of last year, according to its report this week. The same region grew by 3.5% in 2022.
Regarding China's economy, the Ecuador Mobile Number List World Bank raised its growth forecast for 2023 from 4.5% to 5.1% and expects domestic consumption to exert moderate upward pressure on inflation, thus increasing 2.6% in 2023 from 2% in 2022.
Referring to the possibility that banking turbulence in the US and Europe could affect the region, the World Bank believes that the banking sector in East Asia and the Pacific has not been affected so far, but that there are risks through direct or indirect exposure to bonds with potential losses.
Furthermore, the World Bank points out that the levels of capitalization and bad debts in the region are healthy and points out, however, that the growing tension between the US and China is the most immediate challenge for the region, which could negatively influence trade patterns. and discourage investment in the region, once again altering the global value chain.
Despite this, the Asian region currently accounts for half of global trade and according to the World Bank, if the fragmentation of international trade continues in the same direction, not only due to the situation between the two main economic powers, but also due to polarization In the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, long-term global GDP growth may lose 7%, equivalent to the economies of Germany and Japan combined. This contrasts with the trend of the last forty years of globalization, which has allowed trade volume to triple and help emerging and developing countries achieve a higher quality of life for their citizens.
In this scenario, the international organization expects global GDP growth between 2022 and 2030, on average, to fall to 2.2% annually, which represents a third of the average growth in the last decade.
The organization projects that the region will grow 5.1% in 2023, compared to the 4.6% forecast in October of last year, according to its report this week. The same region grew by 3.5% in 2022.
Regarding China's economy, the Ecuador Mobile Number List World Bank raised its growth forecast for 2023 from 4.5% to 5.1% and expects domestic consumption to exert moderate upward pressure on inflation, thus increasing 2.6% in 2023 from 2% in 2022.
Referring to the possibility that banking turbulence in the US and Europe could affect the region, the World Bank believes that the banking sector in East Asia and the Pacific has not been affected so far, but that there are risks through direct or indirect exposure to bonds with potential losses.
Furthermore, the World Bank points out that the levels of capitalization and bad debts in the region are healthy and points out, however, that the growing tension between the US and China is the most immediate challenge for the region, which could negatively influence trade patterns. and discourage investment in the region, once again altering the global value chain.
Despite this, the Asian region currently accounts for half of global trade and according to the World Bank, if the fragmentation of international trade continues in the same direction, not only due to the situation between the two main economic powers, but also due to polarization In the wake of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, long-term global GDP growth may lose 7%, equivalent to the economies of Germany and Japan combined. This contrasts with the trend of the last forty years of globalization, which has allowed trade volume to triple and help emerging and developing countries achieve a higher quality of life for their citizens.
In this scenario, the international organization expects global GDP growth between 2022 and 2030, on average, to fall to 2.2% annually, which represents a third of the average growth in the last decade.